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Reports that Global spam e-mail levels suddenly fall


agsteele
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Global spam e-mail levels suddenly fall

Anyone noticed...?

I'm glad to hear that. Of course others must really notice a change sense I getup every morning to my usual 300-400 spam (depending own when I go to bed.) I don't bother to count anymore but based on that graph I think I would have noticed. :(

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Well, something certainly happened in August 2010. IronPort prides itself in providing the most comprehensive view of spam volumes available and confirms the drop - see http://www.senderbase.org/home/detail_spam...een=&order=

But 5 months is a short baseline in the world of spamdom. And, as discussed in these pages before, we don't know, exactly, what is being measured. All that outwards filtering - which seemingly more and more ISPs are deploying - will certainly show some effect on remote measurement. Anyway, see http://www.senderbase.org/home/detail_spam...een=&order= for a longer-term view. A quick analysis of those numbers is shown at http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/6398/sp...atsdec20102.png. Essentially the trend over 18 months is slightly downward but that tendency is not the slightest bit significant in statistical terms (p~0.71, it is quite likely to come about with no causative agency at all, about the same as the odds of finding 2 people with the same birthday in a group of 31 - and if that doesn't sound very likely have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem) :D.

As others are reporting no especial change in spam experience (and my own has probably picked up a little over the past few months but is a very low incidence anyway) it is probably too early to get hopeful. Deputy Kelly Molloy noted recently in another venue that the biggest botnet of them all, Cutwail, has virtually quit the spamming business. Other internet commentators have noted that this botnet (and others) seemed to be devoting their energies these days to ineffectual DDoS attacks on the FBI, NSA and other agencies. Ineffectual or not, attacking US security agencies doesn't sound to me like a blueprint for survival. We shall have to wait and see.

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I've definitely noticed a difference here.

Some of the addresses to which spam gets sent are receiving nothing what-so-ever and it's been that way since the Christmas break. The main address that attracts spam is still getting 250+ per day though. Overall I would say my spam levels have decreased but I think it would be wiser to say that there are changes in the way spam is currently being distributed.

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There is actually much talk around the 'security' type circles, loads of folks commenting on the drastic reduction in spam flow (although like others, I haven't seen it yet) .... A couple of botnets seem to appear as if the 'managers' have gone on vacation ... the spew has stopped, but the compromised systems are still checking in, assumedly looking for someting to do. Lots of conjecturing and suggested possible theories, but ... no one seems to have a real handle on the "why" it's happening.

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What I'm seeing here is pretty much what is shown in the reporting stats at the top of the page; ~4K to 5K / day earlier in the year tapering down to ~2K / day in early December and now a couple of hundred / day.
I see that something big happened about 3 weeks ago, but I'm at a loss as to say what -- the spikes in the number of messages disappeared, but the levels of reports sent seem about the same. Don't know what the difference is (spamtraps)?

Anyway, spam is now dead, we can all stand down and go home :D

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I see that something big happened about 3 weeks ago, but I'm at a loss as to say what

My spamcop address, which is in several domain registrations, just leveled off three weeks ago. A year ago it was 400/day now it's nosedived to 50 or less.

All that outwards filtering - which seemingly more and more ISPs are deploying - will certainly show some effect on remote measurement.

Let's hope!

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This is all sounding more and more promising. I also note the IronPort daily numbers for January so far are really low - in keeping with the downward trend of the previous five months. Either spammers are taking a really long holiday break this year or they've been nobbled - well and truly restricted. Not exactly marginalised - they still easily account for the greater bulk of all e-mail seen by IronPrort - but compared to before ... well, there's no comparison.

All a little bit mysterious.

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Either spammers are taking a really long holiday break this year or they've been nobbled - well and truly restricted. Not exactly marginalised - they still easily account for the greater bulk of all e-mail seen by IronPrort - but compared to before ... well, there's no comparison.

I really can't tell myself. The amount reaching my mailbox hasn't changed significantly but it would be interesting to know how much is being dealt with via grey-listing. I guess that's where most of mine disappeared anyway.

Andrew

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.... but it would be interesting to know how much is being dealt with via grey-listing.

Agreed!

My mail spam has tanked in the last two days, but in the last 14 hours, I've watched my forum spam onslaughts go from a few registrations per hour to 200 per minute!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

Cheers!

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I've watched my forum spam onslaughts go from a few registrations per hour to 200 per minute!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :o

yes that could be where they have move their bots and zombies. In other forums, forum managers have been reporting that their members are complaining that they are being forced to answer the CAPTCHA question because of 'to many failed logins.' And I have noticed it on a couple of the more visible phpBB forums I visit.

That seems to be a brute force effort. I have not hear anyone report success. Well those with secure systems, anyway. Those that allow weak passwords, don't uses some type of CAPTCHA or let guest post are reporting spam; but then what would you expect?

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